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Recovery Is Worst I’ve Ever Seen

Harvard economist Martin Feldstein says the economic expansion that began when the recession officially ended in 2009 is as bad as he’s ever seen.

Many economists have said the economy is stuck in an extended downturn as opposed to recovering from a recession. Traditionally, recessions are followed by marked recoveries, but that hasn’t been the case today.

“I’m not quite sure what a depression is,” Feldstein tells the Wall Street Journal.

Either the economy is turning down, in which case you’re receding, you’re in a recession, or the economy has reached bottom and is starting up, and then you’re in an expansion,” said Feldstein, a former White House chief economist under Ronald Reagan.

Today, recovery doesn’t feel like recovery for many Americans, especially with unemployment hovering over 9 percent and refusing to move down.

“I would say we are expanding, but it’s about as bad as an expansion as I’ve ever seen,” says Feldstein, who serves on the National Bureau of Economic Research, an independent board tasked with declaring the official start and end dates of recessions.

He expressed concern that there is a “nontrivial chance” the U.S. economy will turn down again.

A recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of economic contraction and even though the economy officially recovered in mid 2009, most agree the pace of growth has been so poor that more and more are wondering if history will remember this time as one of a depression of some sort, where the economy either contracts or grows sluggishly.

“Here we are today, with a severe recession (2007-09) followed by the weakest recovery on record and now on the precipice of another economic downturn,” David Rosenberg, senior economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto writes in an analysis, according to CNBC.

“This is a modern-day depression, not entirely dissimilar to Japan’s post-bubble experience of the past two decades.

2 Responses to “Recovery Is Worst I’ve Ever Seen”

  • Marco, I think we have about 5 more years before the economy grows at a significant pace. I guestimate that approximately 6 months after the foreclosure clutter is absorbed, we will start seeing positive movement. What to you think?

  • I agree. It could be up to 5 years before we see significant improvement. However, there are many variables at play here: the government, the US dollar, geo-political events and influences, money flow into and out of the US. Let’s hope that we see improvement sooner than later.

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