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No Good News on the Economy

No Good News on the EconomyFirst, real estate. The price of homes started sliding again, even as the number of homes moving remains near historic lows. Fewer people are buying, and those who are buying need smaller loans for cheaper homes.

Unemployment and — just as significantly — underemployment have consumers sitting on their hands. No one unsure of their future income stream is making large purchases, or starting large ventures. And, even as the official jobless rate creeps downward, many economists believe the under- and unemployed number is over 20% of the workforce.

None of those people will be committing to a large loan.

Meanwhile, interest rates are about as low as they can get. Mortgage rates, for instance, are well under 5%. That means that the loans that are going out are earning less for banks — and aren’t replacing the revenue lost as older loans come off the books.

All together, it’s led to a 13.3% drop in revenue for the six biggest banks, and, more worrying, a 40.2% slide on pre-tax profits.

The result is investors are staying away — and, as much as we like to be contrarian, this is probably a good move.

The underlying problems that banks now face aren’t temporary, and aren’t going away anytime soon. Real estate might be years away from a true recovery. Unemployment may dip — but not enough to make a dent. And many of the new jobs being created aren’t paying as much as the ones lost — which is nearly as bad for banks.

Finally, there’s just about no chance that the Fed will be increasing interest rates anytime soon. With the government discussing massive cuts on spending and the possibility of raising taxes, there’s no way the Fed will add further pressure by making money more expensive.

In this case, investor pessimism is well warranted.

However, that doesn’t mean we won’t see some buying opportunities soon.

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